...perhaps not the film you think it is. And it may very well be left off the list of films about to be announced by the Academy that comprise this year's Best Documentary Feature Shortlist. In fact, it's the kind of film that would likely surprise no one if it's not included, even though it unquestionably has a critical consensus that no other nonfiction feature can match.
But more on that in a moment.
It's always a gamble to look at critical response when one tries to guess what the members of the Academy's documentary branch will respond to. For one thing, critical opinion of documentaries often is counter to the prevailing winds within the documentary community. Why else would one of the most universally beloved films of the year within the doc community - Pernille Rose Gronkjær's THE MONASTERY (which is inelligible for Oscar due to a foreign TV broadcast) - have received a decidedly mixed response from the New York film critics?
It works the other way as well. One of the darlings of film critics this year has been Tony Kaye's LAKE OF FIRE. In fact, it ranks third on our chart below. But amongst doc makers, the film is viewed less enthusiastically. It might cause shock waves amongst critics if it's not on the Academy Shortlist, but few in the documentary community would raise an eyebrow.
Perhaps more curious is what will happen to the film that our chart shows to be the best reviewed film of the year - Seth Gordon's KING OF KONG: A FISTFUL OF QUARTERS. It's not about Iraq or Darfur or African kids or health care or dead icons. And some who've seen it seem to enjoy it so much that they don't particularly notice the skillful filmmaking involved. Will the Academy?
At this moment, there seem to be five frontrunners - films whose omission would surprise many of us:
THE DEVIL CAME ON HORSEBACK
IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON
NO END IN SIGHT
SICKO
TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE
Beyond that, on a list that may be 12, may be 15, it's almost anyone's guess. If I had to predict - and given all the attention focused on the desire for actual theatrical releases - I'd wager that 8 - 10 of the films would come from the year's higher profile theatrical releases, 30 of them listed here in alphabetical order:
THE 11TH HOUR
AIR GUITAR NATION
ARCTIC TALE
CRAZY LOVE
DARFUR NOW
DEEP WATER
THE DEVIL CAME ON HORSEBACK
FOR THE BIBLE TELLS ME SO
GYPSY CARAVAN
I HAVE NEVER FORGOTTEN YOU: THE LIFE & LEGACY OF SIMON WIESENTHAL
IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON
JIMMY CARTER MAN FROM PLAINS
JOE STRUMMER: THE FUTURE IS UNWRITTEN
THE KING OF KONG: A FISTFUL OF QUARTERS
KURT COBAIN ABOUT A SON
LAKE OF FIRE
MANDA BALA (SEND A BULLET)
MANUFACTURED LANDSCAPES
MEETING RESISTANCE
MR. UNTOUCHABLE
MY KID COULD PAINT THAT
NO END IN SIGHT
PETE SEEGER: THE POWER OF SONG
THE PRICE OF SUGAR
PRIMO LEVI'S JOURNEY
SHARKWATER
SICKO
TERROR'S ADVOCATE
WAR/DANCE
ZOO
In addition to TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE (which opens theatrically in January), there are a number of festival favorites (or films that, like Taxi, have upcoming theatrical releases) that look to fill up to five of the other slots:
BILLY THE KID
BODY OF WAR
BUDDHA'S LOST CHILDREN
CHOPS
HEAR AND NOW
LARRY FLYNT: THE RIGHT TO BE LEFT ALONE
MY ENEMY'S ENEMY
NANKING
PLEASE VOTE FOR ME
PROTAGONIST
A PROMISE TO THE DEAD: THE EXILE JOURNEY OF ARIEL DORFMAN
SOUVENIRS
SUMMERCAMP!
WE ARE TOGETHER
That's 45 films. In a recent Wall Street Journal article, the Academy reported that 70 films had qualifying runs. From that remaining 25, expect between 2 and 4, including at least one title that has everyone scratching their heads.
But of the films that are in the running for the Shortlist this year, at least 30 have had traditional theatrical releases - including screening for critics and reporting box office totals. How important is that to the Academy? Years vary, but last year, 12 of the 15 films had already had a traditional theatrical release or had one planned when the Shortlist was announced.
We've taken those 30 films and come up with a formula to track their critical response - the overall percentage of fresh reviews from all critics at Rotten Tomatoes PLUS the percentage of fresh reviews from the "Cream of the Crop" critics at Rotten Tomatoes PLUS the film's score at Metacritic.
While this formula is certainly imperfect - I don't know a filmmaker who hasn't wondered how Fresh/Rotten is determined or how Metacritic comes up with their scores - the combination of the three numbers gives at least an introductory indication of how a varied group might respond to a film - as well as gauge the strength of their passion for or against. And when compared to the actual shortlist when announced, it might provide clues as to where opinion differs between critics and filmmakers (see the list at the very bottom for last year's results).
By this formula, here is how 30 of the year's higher profile theatrical releases are fairing as of this weekend. As indicated, the first figure is total of three scores, the second is an average based on that total divided by three, the third is the freshness rating of all Rotten Tomato critics, the fourth is the "Cream of the Crop" critics percentage and the fifth is the film's Metacrtic score:
1. THE KING OF KONG
TOTAL = 282
AVERAGE = 94
99% (71 out of 72)
100% cream
83 score
2. NO END IN SIGHT
TOTAL = 280
AVERAGE = 93.333
95% (75 out of 79)
96% cream of the crop
89 score
3 (TIE). IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON
TOTAL = 278
AVERAGE = 92.667
94% (95 out of 101)
100% cream of the crop
84 score
3 (TIE). LAKE OF FIRE
TOTAL = 278
AVERAGE = 92.667
95% (37 out of 39)
100% cream
83 score
5. THE DEVIL CAME ON HORSEBACK
TOTAL = 275
AVERAGE = 91.667
97% (38 out of 39)
100% cream of the crop
78 score
6. DEEP WATER
TOTAL = 270
AVERAGE = 90
96% (46 out of 48)
94% cream
80 score
7. PETE SEEGER: THE POWER OF SONG
TOTAL = 267
AVERAGE = 89
95% (18 out of 19)
91% cream
81 score
8 (TIE). JOE STRUMMER: THE FUTURE IS UNWRITTEN
TOTAL = 266
AVERAGE = 88.667
87% (33 of 38)
100% cream
79 score
8 (TIE). FOR THE BIBLE TELLS ME SO
TOTAL = 266
AVERAGE = 88.667
94% (32 out of 34)
100% cream
72 score
10. MY KID COULD PAINT THAT
TOTAL = 264
AVERAGE = 88
95% (52 out of 55)
95% cream
74 score
11. SICKO
TOTAL = 254
AVERAGE = 84.667
93% (163 out of 176)
87% cream
74 score
12. MANUFACTURED LANDSCAPES
TOTAL = 251
AVERAGE = 83.667
83% (44 out of 53)
89% cream
79 score
13. TERROR'S ADVOCATE
TOTAL = 249
AVERAGE = 83
84% (21 out of 25)
90% cream
75 score
14. MANDA BALA (SEND A BULLET)
TOTAL = 247
AVERAGE = 82.333
82% (36 out of 44)
94% cream
71 score
15. I HAVE NEVER FORGOTTEN YOU: THE LIFE & LEGACY OF SIMON WIESENTHAL
TOTAL = 243
AVERAGE = 81
81% (17 out of 21)
89% cream
73 score
16 (TIE). AIR GUITAR NATION
TOTAL = 241
AVERAGE = 80.333
83% (48 out of 58)
86% cream
72 score
16 (TIE). GYPSY CARAVAN
TOTAL = 241
AVERAGE = 80.333
85% (39 out of 46)
83% cream
73 score
16 (TIE). KURT COBAIN ABOUT A SON
TOTAL = 241
AVERAGE = 80.333
79% (19 out of 24)
89% cream
73 score
19. THE PRICE OF SUGAR
TOTAL = 230
AVERAGE = 76.667
75% (12 out of 16)
83% cream
72 score
20. CRAZY LOVE
TOTAL = 227
AVERAGE = 75.667
78% (61 out of 78)
80% cream
69 score
21. PRIMO LEVI'S JOURNEY
TOTAL - 226
AVERAGE = 75.333
83% (15 out of 18)
75% cream
68 score
22. MR. UNTOUCHABLE
TOTAL = 223
AVERAGE = 74.333
76% (16 out of 21)
82% cream
65 score
23. WAR/DANCE
TOTAL = 221
AVERAGE = 73.667
76% (16 out of 21)
80% cream
65 score
24. MEETING RESISTANCE
TOTAL = 209
AVERAGE = 69.667
82% (9 out of 11)
83% cream
44 score
25. DARFUR NOW
TOTAL = 198
AVERAGE = 66
64% (25 out of 39)
67% cream
67 score
26. JIMMY CARTER MAN FROM PLAINS
TOTAL = 195
AVERAGE = 65
75% (33 out of 44)
62% cream
58 score
27. SHARKWATER
TOTAL = 194
AVERAGE = 64.667
77% (17 out of 22)
56% cream
61 score
28. THE 11TH HOUR
TOTAL = 193
AVERAGE = 64.333
67% (53 out of 79)
63% cream
63 score
29. ARCTIC TALE
TOTAL = 182
AVERAGE = 60.667
64% (53 out of 83)
54% cream
64 score
30. ZOO
TOTAL = 175
AVERAGE = 58.333
56% (24 out of 43)
56% cream
63 score
What does this mean? How important is critical opinion? If we look back at 20 high profile traditional theatrical films from 2006 - including 12 that made the Shortlist - we'll find films like 51 BIRCH STREET and 49 UP, which had the second and third highest cumulative scores, and neither made the Shortlist, while JESUS CAMP, which comes in 18 out of 20, gets nominated:
1, DELIVER US FROM EVIL (Nominated)
TOTAL = 286
AVERAGE = 95.333
2. 51 BIRCH STREET (Not Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 274
AVERAGE = 91.333
3. 49 UP (Not Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 273
AVERAGE = 91
4. IRAQ IN FRAGMENTS (Nominated)
TOTAL = 272
AVERAGE = 90.667
5. THE WAR TAPES (Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 271
AVERAGE = 90.333
6. WORDPLAY (Not Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 265
AVERAGE = 88.333
7. AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH (Nominated/Won)
TOTAL = 261
AVERAGE = 87
8. (Tie) SHUT UP AND SING (Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 258
AVERAGE = 86
8. (Tie) AN UNREASONABLE MAN (Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 258
AVERAGE = 86
10. JONESTOWN: THE LIFE AND DEATH OF PEOPLES TEMPLE (Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 256
AVERAGE = 85.333
11. WHO KILLED THE ELECTRIC CAR? (Not Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 255
AVERAGE = 85
12. CAN MR. SMITH GET TO WASHINGTON ANYMORE? (Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 250
AVERAGE = 83.333
13. SISTERS-IN-LAW (Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 249
AVERAGE = 83
14. MY COUNTRY MY COUNTRY (Nominated)
TOTAL = 244
AVERAGE = 81.3
15. (Tie) THE GROUND TRUTH (Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 240
AVERAGE = 80
15. (Tie) HEART OF THE GAME (Not Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 240
AVERAGE = 80
17. THIS FILM IS NOT YET RATED (Not Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 236
AVERAGE = 78.667
18. JESUS CAMP (Nominated)
TOTAL = 233
AVERAGE = 77.667
19. SKETCHES OF FRANK GEHRY (Not Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 224
AVERAGE = 74.667
20. US VS. JOHN LENNON (Not Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 209
AVERAGE = 69.667
On critical opinion and box office alone, WORDPLAY should have been a shoe-in, right? Well, keep that in mind if KING OF KONG isn't on this year's list, even though it just may be the best documentary of the year.
In one scene in Manufacturing Dissent Moore discussses how the Bush administration used fearmongering (trumped up WMD claims, bogus imminent threat claims, false testimony before the UN regarding mobile chemical weapons labs, etc, etc) to manipulate the American public into siding with him on the invasion of Iraq. Then in the same speech Moore turns around and tells the college students that if they don't vote for Kerry then Bush will draft them and send them right to the front lines. That statement had no more truth in then Bush's claims about WMDs. So fearmongering for Bush bad but fearmongering for Moore good? And what about the truth, or is getting people all riled up, even if its based upon lies, good enough?
We're just as frustrated as the next person that we have not gotten to the promised land with Moore's assistance. Why isn't he more effective? How about effective at all? Just maybe Moore's approach has something to do with it, which is exactly the issue Manufacturing Dissent raises. We're lefties so we get the whole speaking truth to power argument but what if it's half truth? Is it half as effective, or maybe not effective at all? Moore is hard to ignore but easy to dismiss.
Pierson writes in the open letter to Moore "You're on the side of the fucking angels with "SiCKO" and no lapses, omissions or oversimplifications can detract from its contribution to the greater good." But this is exactly the problem: the lapses, omissions and oversimplifications do distract from the greater good and to all of our detriment. This is akin to arguing that lying for the cause is good for debate. What's the point if it's based upon lies? We all want the same thing to live in a well-functioning democracy the only way we can get there is by having an informed electorate that acts upon their knowledge at the ballot box and the only way we can get there is by having media that chooses not to lie to the people. Part of our argument in Manufacturing Dissent that it is also destructive when Moore does it as it is when FOX News does it. Some say who cares if Moore lies to his lefty base and gets away with it? Others will argue it doesn't matter if FOX News lies to their viewers. For better or worse it does have an impact an that is exactly why its important. We need to be having debates based upon facts and not resting upon misconceptions and lies. How will this get us to where we want to be?
For the record, Mike Westfall, who seems to always have the last word in internet posts (under whatever pseud he chooses) was both interviewed and contributed footage to Manufacturing Dissent but it is incorrect to term this a "consultant" however grateful we remain. We never made any pretense with Westfall, we told him repeatedly that ours was a film about Moore. And yes Westfall is right there remains marvelous opportunity for films to be made about the plight of working Americans. Hopefully someone will "consult" with Westfall about that.
SiCKO, just like Moore's previous films, will have no impact on the American health care system. But hey why should some piss ant Canadians stand in the way of mighty America trying to get universal health care right? We meant many things with this film, this was not amongst them.
And maybe sometime we can go for a beer AJ and you can confess all of your ethical lapses to us like other filmmakers are doing. Let's start with the violating of your own 'self imposed' standards (if you don't follow your own 'rules' what's the point in having them?) about blogging about other films, even as you suck and blow your own mediocre and largely ignored film. I know I was at SXSW when it screened during the music part of the fest and all of like 50 people turned up for a screening in the 1,200 seat Paramount Theater, and that's the music crowd. Then we can discuss your ethically challenged principles that allowed you to put together a doc about deceased Kurt Cobain based upon interviews he granted to another under very different circumstances. To say nothing of what I don't yet know. Ethics smethics, who's kidding who here? Come confess, the filmmakers always seem to feel better afterward. Now if they just could have been as honest with their audience to begin with...