67 entries categorized "Box Office"

July 03, 2008

Not You David Ansen, Not You! Newsweek's Critic Par Excellance Join the Doc Depression Bandwagon

One of favorite film writers and critics, David Ansen of Newsweek, has an article up declaring "THE END OF THE DOCUMENTARY FILM MARKET".  Lord-eye-lou, really?  Isn't that soooo 2007?

"(After the success of docs in 2003-2005), (d)istributors gobbled up docs at prices no one was used to paying. The market was flooded with product: some of it superb and laden with critical praise; some of it urgent and timely; some of it aimed at niche markets that would presumably rush out to see a movie about their favorite subjects: crossword puzzles, wine, women's high-school basketball; some of it merely mediocre but so cheap to make in the new era of over-the-counter digital filmmaking that investors figured they had nothing to lose.

Then everybody got burned. Unless documentaries were made by Michael Moore, or featured Al Gore talking about inconvenient truths, the theatrical market for these films collapsed. Huge expectations ran into a wall of audience indifference: CRAZY LOVE was supposed to go through the roof yet it made a measly $301,000. TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE won the best-documentary Oscar—and its grosses, paltry to begin with, went down! Alex Gibney, the director of this tough movie about the torture of terror suspects by Americans, is suing THINKFilm, its distributor, for what he says was an inadequate release. With all due respect to Gibney, he's kidding himself if he thinks tons of marketing money could have made a difference. Even Errol Morris's high-profile film on Abu Ghraib, STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE, flopped—$209,000."         

In truth, the actual information in Ansen's piece is a far cry from the debacle that John Horn foisted on the readers of the LA Times two weeks ago (Ansen actually mentions the success of EXPELLED and U23D!), but it continues to feed on a basic incorrect notion - that nonfiction film is still in the doldrums of last year - a point that I've refuted time and again.  This year has seen, in case it needs reminding, the best start for docs since 2003. 

What we haven't had - and this seems to be the underlying hypothesis of Ansen's article - is a smash hit ala FAHRENHEIT 9/11 or MARCH OF THE PENGUINS, or a $20 million plus success like SICKO or AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH (or, truth be told, a $10 million breakout like WINGED MIGRATION or SUPER SIZE ME).  But both EXPELLED and U23D have bested SPELLBOUND, which Ansen references as a reminder of the "good ole days", and SHINE A LIGHT trails it by just a few hundred thousand.

Would CRAZY LOVE, even if it had worked, been a $10 million dollar success?  Hard to see it, considering that CAPTURING THE FRIEDMANS topped out just north of 3.  And sure, FOG OF WAR and ENRON: THE SMARTEST GUYS IN THE ROOM both made $4 million plus, but neither of those film is about torture, to say nothing about the change in the mood of the country.

The irony is that what made 2003-2005 such a great time for docs was that there were a lot of doubles and triples, not just a single home run followed by a bunch of foul balls.  Fact is, a single big success does not do a lot of good for the general perception of documentary fitness for theatrical release.  Witness 2006, wherein the first doom-and-gloomers foresaw a nonfiction downturn - despite the super success of that Al Gore film.  Ditto 2007, universally declared a doc depression even with Michael Moore's health care treatise.  This year there are three films with more than $5 million in box office - and at least one (Bill Maher's RELIGULOUS) that seems like it could duplicate that feat (who knows what will happen with Sundance faves AMERICAN TEEN and MAN ON WIRE).  Meanwhile, we've got another movie that's bound for $4 million - YOUNG@HEART (a big success despite what the delusional Horn thinks). 

Bottom line - We're likely to end the year with 4-7 nonfictions grossing more than $4 million.  The record?  4 films did it in 2005.  It's hard to argue that equaling or surpassing that success denotes a industry-wide downturn for docs, yet it's apparent that even our favorite film writers might not yet have received the memo.

July 02, 2008

Strong Debut for TRUMBO as ENCOUNTERS Begins to Expand

Peter Askin's TRUMBO, which premiered at the 2007 Toronto Film Festival and was the opening night film at this year's Full Frame, was the top documentary debut this week, taking in nearly $10K per three theatres, including New York's Sunshine and LA's The Landmark.  The film, which is based on a play by Christopher Trumbo, son of the blacklisted screenwriter Dalton, has well-known actors (including Joan Allen and David Straitharn) reading Trumbo's letters.

Werner Herzog's ENCOUNTERS AT THE END OF THE WORLD expanded beyond the friendly confines of New York's Film Forum this weekend and found continued success in its first expansion, averaging more than $6K in eight theaters.  THINKFilm's Michael Tuckman, perhaps trying to change the prevailing perception that the company is struggling, gave an enthusiastic deposition outlining THINK's due diligence to indieWIRE:

"The success of ENCOUNTERS has been the fruit of a very carefully planned release of the film, dating back to the moment we acquired it in late 2007," said Michael Tuckman, vice president, theatrical sales, ThinkFilm. "Each theater that has launched the film was handpicked and locked up months in advance to ensure the best possible venue in which to present the film in each market. Along with that went hand-in-hand publicity and marketing efforts with each theater to get the word out on this truly remarkable film that continues Herzog's renaissance. This past weekend - the film's third at the Film Forum and first week off its calendar - was its strongest yet with continued sold-out shows over the course of the weekend."

ENCOUNTERS is poised to potentially enter the top 15 box office docs of 2008 next weekend.  But for now, here are the top films in the 2008 Nonfiction Box Office through this past weekend:

1.    U23D (National Geographic)                                           $  8,631,306

2.    EXPELLED: NO INTELLIGENCE ALLOWED (Rocky)    $  7,614,754

3.    SHINE A LIGHT (Paramount Vantage)                           $  5,355,376

4.    YOUNG@HEART (Fox Searchlight)                               $  3,606,430

5.    UP THE YANGTZE (Zeitgeist/Kino)                             ~ $    769,000

6.    VINCE VAUGHN'S WILD WEST... (Picturehouse)           $    603,894

7.    WHERE IN THE WORLD IS OSAMA... (Weinstein)         $    384,955

8.    TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE (THINKFilm)                         $    274,661

9.    PLANET B-BOY (Elephant Eye)                                     $    273,870

10.   STEEP (SPC)                                                              $    260,586

11.  THE SINGING REVOLUTION (Abramorama)                   $    247,134

12.  BIGGER, STRONGER, FASTER* (Magnolia)                   $    246,145

13.  STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE (SPC)               $    216,012

14.  SURFWISE (Magnolia)                                                   $    208,932

15.  CHICAGO 10 (Roadside Attractions)                               $    175,797

June 27, 2008

Why Does the LA Times Hate America? (Or: How to Use Selected Box Office Numbers to Validate Last Year's Theories)

My travel from the past week has prevented me from weighing on John Horn's piece in the LA Times last week.  Titled "Documentaries lose box office muscle", it was yet another of those "nonfiction sky is falling" pieces that conveniently ignores the current success that documentaries are having at the box office in an effort to paint the genre as truly hurting:

"Critically acclaimed films about provocative subjects struggle to make money all the time, but rarely have so many lauded documentaries consistently failed to connect at the box office. The recent nonfiction returns have been so bleak that several distributors are growing wary about taking on such highbrow works, an alarming development in a pop culture universe already dominated by "American Idol," James Frey and US Weekly."

I've often quarreled with the LA Times' coverage of documentaries, but Horn's piece is truly something for the archives.  For one, he posits the curious conclusion that YOUNG@HEART - a film that is well on its way to grossing 3.5 million - is yet another black eye on nonfiction box office performance.  It's a stretch, it is, but one that Horn continues to ride into a column yesterday, in which he exclaims that YOUNG@HEART was "dead on arrival".

Although Horn gets Steve Gilula, the COO of Fox Searchlight, to go on record saying that the distributor was disappointed given the acquisition deal (which Horn pegs at 1.5 million) and marketing costs, he closes with much seriousness on a capper from Gilula that is laughable to anyone who knows the history of Fox Searchlight's dabbling in doc features:

"I believe," says Gilula, "that we will be very cautious in considering future documentaries."

Yes, that's right kids, the company that hadn't bought a doc in more than a decade (Horn erroneously calls YOUNG@HEART Searchlight's first doc pickup) is officially now "very cautious" about acquiring nonfiction.  Someone alert the media.  (To his credit, at least Horn gets one fact right - YOUNG@HEART sold at LAFF last year, not Sundance, which the Times screwed up in an article earlier this year.)

Guess who else is skittish about documentaries? Why none other than Sony Pictures Classics' Michael Barker:

"'It's unlike anything I've seen before," says Michael Barker, whose Sony Pictures Classics has released the documentary duds STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE, JIMMY CARTER MAN FROM PLAINS and MY KID COULD PAINT THAT, none of which grossed more than $250,000 theatrically. "Unless you have movie stars like Michael Moore or Al Gore associated with your film, you can't sell tickets.'"

Not mentioned by Horn is the fact that SPC picked up not one but two nonfiction titles at Cannes - James Toback's TYSON biopic (a star certainly, but not an Al Gore kinda star) and the critically acclaimed animated film WALTZ WITH BASHIR.

In short, there's lots of issues to ponder in nonfiction - what happens if we lose THINKFilm?  why are political docs underperforming?  are there better avenues for release than the classic multi-tiered theatrical/dvd/cable model? - while still acknowledging that docs overall are having a much better than average year (In keeping with his meme, Horn fails to mention EXPELLED, U23D or SHINE A LIGHT in his piece).  And even a newspaper in the shadow of the mighty studio system - where $50 million can be a massive bomb - should know better than to call YOUNG@HEART DOA.

June 26, 2008

ENCOUNTERS Does the Unthinkable - Actually Builds Audience

Werner Herzog's ENCOUNTERS AT THE END OF THE WORLD did something completely unexpected last weekend - and almost unheard of these days - when it actually increased its box office take in its second weekend at the Film Forum in New York.  It was another piece of welcome good news for THINKFilm.

Second week totals were also strong for Guy Maddin's MY WINNIPEG and Guido Santi & Tina Mascara's CHRIS AND DON: A LOVE STORY

Here's the 2008 Nonfiction Box Office through this past weekend:

1.    U23D (National Geographic)                                           $  8,531,070

2.    EXPELLED: NO INTELLIGENCE ALLOWED (Rocky)    $  7,614,754

3.    SHINE A LIGHT (Paramount Vantage)                           $  5,355,376

4.    YOUNG@HEART (Fox Searchlight)                               $  3,311,611

5.    UP THE YANGTZE (Zeitgeist/Kino)                             ~ $    706,000

6.    VINCE VAUGHN'S WILD WEST... (Picturehouse)           $    603,894

7.    WHERE IN THE WORLD IS OSAMA... (Weinstein)         $    384,955

8.    TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE (THINKFilm)                         $    274,661

9.    PLANET B-BOY (Elephant Eye)                                     $    273,870

10.   STEEP (SPC)                                                              $    260,586

11.  THE SINGING REVOLUTION (Abramorama)                   $    238,040

12.  BIGGER, STRONGER, FASTER* (Magnolia)                   $    216,748

13.  STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE (SPC)               $    208,834

14.  SURFWISE (Magnolia)                                                   $    177,980

15.  CHICAGO 10 (Roadside Attractions)                               $    174,624

June 16, 2008

A Big Doc Weekend for Herzog, THINK & MY WINNIPEG

After weeks of discussion about THINKFilm's viability, their release of Werner Herzog's ENCOUNTERS AT THE END OF THE WORLD at NYC's Film Forum marks the biggest documentary opening of 2008, taking in nearly $18K.  By comparison, Herzog's GRIZZLY MAN, which went on to take in over 3 million, averaged just over $9K per screen (in 29 theaters) when it debuted in August 2005.

THINKFilm's success on the Herzog film comes on a weekend in which 3 different nonfiction titles landed in the indieWIRE iWBOT top 5.  Debuting strongly was Guy Maddin's personal MY WINNIPEG, which IFC is screening exclusively at the IFC Center.  It took in more than $14K. 

CHRIS AND DON: A LOVE STORY
, Guido Santi and Tina Mascara's film about the relationship between author Christopher Isherwood and painter Don Bachardy, took in more than $5K on two screens, including the Quad in Manhattan.

Finally, the successful expansion of two Magnolia titles - Christopher Bell's BIGGER, STRONGER, FASTER* and Doug Pray's SURFWISE launches both films into our top 15 for the year.  More theaters are due to be added next week.

Off to Silverdocs!...

Here's the 2008 Nonfiction Box Office through this past weekend:

1.    U23D (National Geographic)                                           $  8,419,800

2.    EXPELLED: NO INTELLIGENCE ALLOWED (Rocky)    $  7,614,754

3.    SHINE A LIGHT (Paramount Vantage)                           $  5,355,376

4.    YOUNG@HEART (Fox Searchlight)                               $  3,311,611

5.    UP THE YANGTZE (Zeitgeist/Kino)                             ~ $    609,000

6.    VINCE VAUGHN'S WILD WEST... (Picturehouse)           $    603,894

7.    WHERE IN THE WORLD IS OSAMA... (Weinstein)         $    384,955

8.    TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE (THINKFilm)                         $    274,661

9.    PLANET B-BOY (Elephant Eye)                                     $    273,870

10.   STEEP (SPC)                                                              $    260,586

11.  THE SINGING REVOLUTION (Abramorama)                   $    207,387

12.  STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE (SPC)               $    198,523

13.  CHICAGO 10 (Roadside Attractions)                               $    174,624

14.  BIGGER, STRONGER, FASTER* (Magnolia)                   $   163,600

15.  SURFWISE (Magnolia)                                                   $   146,358

June 10, 2008

YOUNG@HEART Hits 3M, BIGGER Gets STRONGER

Heading into mid-June the doc box office continues to hum along as Magnolia's summer release of Christopher Bell's BIGGER, STRONGER, FASTER* begins its expansion.  Adding 13 theaters, the film maintained a healthy average of $2,682 per screen to finish the weekend just shy of $100K.  Meanwhile, Fox Searchlight's YOUNG@HEART is starting to fade after two strong months in theaters.  This weekend the film passed the $3 million mark and looks to close in on 3.5M before it's done.  (For comparison, that would rank the film with BORN INTO BROTHELS and THE CORPORATION, which were both released amongst the 2004 boom.)

Meanwhile, Parvez Sharma's A JIHAD FOR LOVE continues to do extremely well at it's exclusive run at the IFC Center in New York.  The film has taken in nearly $50K in its first three weekends.  Playing select dates and festivals for the next month and a half, the film is scheduled to open in LA and SF in August.

Coming Wednesday, THINKFilm's release of Werner Herzog's ENCOUNTERS AT THE END OF THE WORLD at New York's Film Forum.

Here's the 2008 Nonfiction Box Office through this past weekend:

1.    U23D (National Geographic)                                           $  8,320,845

2.    EXPELLED: NO INTELLIGENCE ALLOWED (Rocky)    $  7,614,754

3.    SHINE A LIGHT (Paramount Vantage)                           $  5,317,988

4.    YOUNG@HEART (Fox Searchlight)                               $  3,131,734

5.    UP THE YANGTZE (Zeitgeist/Kino)                             ~ $    609,000

6.    VINCE VAUGHN'S WILD WEST... (Picturehouse)           $    603,894

7.    WHERE IN THE WORLD IS OSAMA... (Weinstein)         $    384,955

8.    TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE (THINKFilm)                         $    274,661

9.    PLANET B-BOY (Elephant Eye)                                     $    273,870

10.   STEEP (SPC)                                                              $    260,586

11.  THE SINGING REVOLUTION (Abramorama)                   $    207,387

13.  STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE (SPC)               $    182,312

 

12.  CHICAGO 10 (Roadside Attractions)                               $    174,624

14.  GIRLS ROCK! (Shadow)                                                $    136,961

15.  BRA BOYS (Slowhand)                                                  $    130,524

May 27, 2008

Memorial Day Marks Another Strong Showing for YOUNG@HEART and a Surprising Resurgence for OSAMA

With summer now in full gear and the first major doc of the season - Christopher Bell's BIGGER, STRONGER, FASTER* - due this Friday, there's still some life in at least 3 spring nonfiction titles. 

Stephen Walker's YOUNG@HEART continues to expand gradually with great success.  Now in slightly more than 200 theaters, the film took in an average of just under $2K per, bringing the film to $2.5 million in box office. 

Generating some surprise is the new resilience shown by Morgan Spurlock's WHERE IN THE WORLD IS OSAMA BIN LADEN?, which posted its second best weekend average to date.  We noted last week that the film had an uptick in its average box office totals after what many deemed a dismal start.  Combined with the fact that the film is now playing in smaller markets (with lower ticket prices), some theaters for WHERE IN THE WORLD are more full than they've ever been.

Meanwhile, Marc Pellington and Catherine Owens' U23D made nearly $100,000 this weekend, bringing its cume to over $8 million and will continue to stand as the year's top nonfiction title (at least for now) as EXPELLED continues its slowdown.  It also stands as the top non-political documentary since 2005's MARCH OF THE PENGUINS.

Here's the 2008 Nonfiction Box Office through the Memorial Day weekend:

1.    U23D (National Geographic)                                           $  8,121,948

2.    EXPELLED: NO INTELLIGENCE ALLOWED (Rocky)    $  7,598,071

3.    SHINE A LIGHT (Paramount Vantage)                           $  5,223,448

4.    YOUNG@HEART (Fox Searchlight)                               $  2,510,297

5.    VINCE VAUGHN'S WILD WEST... (Picturehouse)           $    603,894

6.    UP THE YANGTZE (Zeitgeist/Kino)                             ~ $    596,500

7.    WHERE IN THE WORLD IS OSAMA... (Weinstein)         $    381,167

8.    TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE (THINKFilm)                         $    274,306

9.    PLANET B-BOY (Elephant Eye)                                     $    270,208

10.   STEEP (SPC)                                                              $    260,586

11.  THE SINGING REVOLUTION (Abramorama)                   $    198,699

12.  CHICAGO 10 (Roadside Attractions)                               $    173,052

13.  STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE (SPC)               $    154,451

14.  GIRLS ROCK! (Shadow)                                                $    134,554

15.  BRA BOYS (Slowhand)                                                  $    130,524

May 12, 2008

Strong Debut for SURFWISE, Expansion for YOUNG@HEART

Doug Pray's SURFWISE, the eye-opening portrait of the unorthadox Paskowitz surfing family, had a stellar opening at the IFC Center over the weekend, taking in more than $10K - enough to land at or very near the top of indieWIRE's iW:BOT when it is published tomorrow.  SURFWISE is the last major spring release before the onslaught of summer blockbuster titles, capping a season filled with unexpected successes and a few very high-profile disappointments.

The next major doc release comes next month, when THINK rolls out Werner Herzog's ENCOUNTERS AT THE END OF THE WORLD (from the rumored-to-be-defunct Discovery Films).  Lionsgate has announced that they are postponing the release of the Larry Charles/Bill Maher nonfiction RELIGULOUS from June to October 3, ostensibly because they want the springboard of a major fall festival (a possible Telluride/Toronto two-fer) although word is that the film wouldn't have been ready for its June release, effectively forcing the move (and putting at least one major summer festival in a bind).

Meanwhile, Fox Searchlight continues to find success with its gradual expansion of YOUNG@HEART.  Now in 145 theaters, the film is averaging just over $2,500 per screen and now looks assured of reaching 2 million.  And although EXPELLED is clearly slowing down and shedding screens, it still looks like it could pass U23D before the end of both films' run.

Here's the 2008 Nonfiction Box Office through Sunday:

1.    U23D (National Geographic)                                           $  7,867,852

2.    EXPELLED: NO INTELLIGENCE ALLOWED (Rocky)    $  7,235,324

3.    SHINE A LIGHT (Paramount Vantage)                           $  5,031,562

4.    YOUNG@HEART (Fox Searchlight)                               $  1,444,646

5.    VINCE VAUGHN'S WILD WEST... (Picturehouse)           $    603,894

6.    UP THE YANGTZE (Zeitgeist/Kino)                             ~ $    535,800

7.    WHERE IN THE WORLD IS OSAMA... (Weinstein)         $    322,710

8.    TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE (THINKFilm)                         $    270,888

9.    STEEP (SPC)                                                              $    260,586

10.  PLANET B-BOY (Elephant Eye)                                     $    260,391

12.  THE SINGING REVOLUTION (Abramorama)                   $    170,396

11.  CHICAGO 10 (Roadside Attractions)                               $    170,198

12.  GIRLS ROCK! (Shadow)                                                $    125,377

13.  THE FIRST SATURDAY IN MAY (Truly Indie)                 $    114,909

13.  BRA BOYS (Slowhand)                                                  $    113,730

14.  STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE (SPC)               $     96,234

15.  BLINDSIGHT (Abramorama)                                           $     81,576

May 07, 2008

YOUNG@HEART Becomes 4th Doc of 2008 to Reach 1 Million

Stephen Walker's YOUNG@HEART, the first nonfiction film to be released by Fox Searchlight in over a decade, a film picked up out of competition at the 2007 Los Angeles Film Festival and a film that has already aired on British television, is set to become the 4th documentary of 2008 to reach 1 million dollars at the box office.

Looking at the first four months of the year, you'd have to go back to 2003 - the breakthrough year for documentary film when both WINGED MIGRATION and SPELLBOUND broke big - to find a year that has had the kind of success that 2008 has had to date.  In 2007, widely regarded as a depressed year theatrically, only 3 films released all year reached 1 million.

And if you gaze into the crystal ball, you'd have to believe that Larry Charles' RELIGULOUS - set for release this summer - and possibly AMERICAN TEEN and MAN ON WIRE have the potential to be large scale successes.

That doesn't mean that everything has gone according to plan.  Errol Morris' STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE looks like it will have difficulty beyond the top 20 markets and Morgan Spurlock's WHERE IN THE WORLD IS OSAMA BIN LADEN? seems to have already run its course, far short of $500,000.

But a few smaller releases are quietly having solid, successful runs, including UP THE YANGTZE, which topped indieWIRE's iW:Bot last week and remained in the top 5 this weekend, and James Tusty and Maureen Castle Tusty's THE SINGING REVOLUTION, which averaged more than $4,400 per theater, even after weeks of screenings.

Here's the 2008 Nonfiction Box Office through Sunday:

1.    U23D (National Geographic)                       $  7,676,027

2.    EXPELLED: NO INTELLIGENCE (Rocky)  $  6,680,168

3.    SHINE A LIGHT (Paramount Vantage)       $  4,870,248

4.    YOUNG@HEART (Fox Searchlight)           $     952,767

5.    VINCE VAUGHN'S WILD... (Picturehouse) $    603,894

6.    UP THE YANGTZE (Zeitgeist/Kino)         ~ $    520,800

7.    WHERE IN THE WORLD IS... (Weinstein)  $    309,720

8.    TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE (THINKFilm)    $     261,127

9.    STEEP (Sony Pictures Classics)              $     260,586

10.  PLANET B-BOY (Elephant Eye)                $    246,161

11.  CHICAGO 10 (Roadside Attractions)          $    166,627

12.  SINGING REVOLUTION (Abramorama)      $    150,428

12.  GIRLS ROCK! (Shadow)                            $    113,853

13.  FIRST SATURDAY IN MAY (Truly Indie)     $    112,006

13.  BRA BOYS (Slowhand)                              $    103,759

14.  PRAYING WITH LIOR (First Run)               $      72,282

15.  BLINDSIGHT (Abramorama)                       $      70,252

April 29, 2008

Nonfiction Box Office Up Over 1100% From One Year Ago

As Anthony Kaufman suggests in his piece for indieWIRE this week, there are still troubling signs for overtly political documentaries at the North American box office.  But that doesn't mean that last year's slump is continuing.  In fact, there are increasing signs that the strategy to open a number of docs this spring (as opposed to during the fall Oscar rush) is paying off in a big way.

The Nonfiction Box Office is up more than 1100% from one year ago.

At this point last year, the two highest grossing docs of the year were Zeitgeist's INTO GREAT SILENCE, which had made $444,000, and the Canadian release of SHARKWATER, which had made $666,000.  GOD GREW TIRED OF US ended a successful run with just over $300,000.  No other film had made more than $100,000.  Already this year, 12 films have crossed the $100,000 mark.

In fact, if you look at the top ten films at this point last year, you'd have a cumulative amount of approximately $1,665,000.  This year, the top ten docs come in just shy of 20 million total.

Obviously the two big concert titles - U23D and SHINE A LIGHT - as well as conservative look at Intelligent Design have a lot to do with this year's success.  But consider also UP THE YANGTZE, which has had an amazing run in Canada, making nearly half a million, prior to its very successful NYC opening this past weekend, garnering nearly $16K on one screen.

Less successful was the opening of Errol Morris' Abu Ghraib film, STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE, which made just over $7K on two screens.  Also on the political doc front, Morgan Spurlock's WHERE IN THE WORLD IS OSAMA BIN LADEN? fell nearly 60% from its opening weekend and made just $818 on each of its 72 screens.

Meanwhile, YOUNG@HEART continued its highly successful rollout, averaging nearly $4K on 56 screens.  That film's per screen average dropped only 14% from last weekend, even as it added 23 screens.

Here's the 2008 Nonfiction Box Office to Date:

1.    U23D (National Geographic)                      $  7,636,487

2.    EXPELLED: NO INTELLIGENCE (Rocky)  $  5,297,860

3.    SHINE A LIGHT (Paramount Vantage)       $  4,406,820

4.    VINCE VAUGHN'S WILD... (Picturehouse) $    603,894

5.    YOUNG@HEART (Fox Searchlight)           $    525,272

6.    UP THE YANGTZE (Zeitgeist/Kino)          ~ $    500,800

7.    WHERE IN THE WORLD IS... (Weinstein) $     264,438

8.    STEEP (Sony Pictures Classics)              $     260,586

9.    TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE (THINKFilm)    $     258,473

10.  PLANET B-BOY (Elephant Eye)                $    240,149

11.  CHICAGO 10 (Roadside Attractions)          $    163,839

12.  GIRLS ROCK! (Shadow)                           $    105,140

13.  FIRST SATURDAY IN MAY (Truly Indie)    $     96,939

13.  BRA BOYS (Slowhand)                             $     88,737

14.   BUSINESS OF BEING BORN (Intl Film)    $     69,911

15.  BLINDSIGHT (Abramorama)                      $     69,663

April 28, 2008

EXPELLED Has Another Million Dollar Weekend, But What About S.O.P. and the Rest of the Poli-Docs

The conservative documentary EXPELLED, which purports to take on the debate over "intelligent design", had another big weekend at the box office, garnering more than 1.3 million dollars and bringing its total box office to more than 5 million in just 10 days.

That total makes EXPELLED the 2nd biggest nonfiction title of the year (behind the concert film U23D) and moves the film into the top 25 documentaries of all time.

Meanwhile, expectant eyes were looking to STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE, the new film about Abu Ghraib from master filmmaker Errol Morris.  Opening on just 2 screens, the film averaged over $7K per - less than previous Morris films as noted by Anthony Kaufman who, writing for indieWIRE, is wondering whether the political film box office is, at least for now, dead:

"'Everyone is uninterested,' said Roadside Attractions' Howard Cohen, who worked on the release of SUPER SIZE ME as well as this year's CHICAGO 10. Even in markets where Oscar-nominated director Brett Morgen's super-energized retelling of the Chicago 1968 rabblerousers got four-star reviews, such as Washington D.C. ('the first great film of 2008,' wrote the Washington Post), audiences were 'absolutely indifferent,' explained Cohen."

As Kaufman further notes, Spurlock's new film, WHERE IN THE WORLD IS OSAMA BIN LADEN?, had a languid opening last weekend and dropped further this weekend. 

More on this weekend's box office and the surprising success of UP THE YANGTZE later in the week...

April 20, 2008

EXPELLED Trounces OSAMA, Nearly Enters Top 25 Docs All Time on First Weekend

Nathan Frankowski's EXPELLED, a conservative-leaning nonfiction starring comedian/actor Ben Stein, scored an impressive box office victory this weekend over the moderate-to-slightly-liberal WHERE IN THE WORLD IS OSAMA BIN LADEN?, from documentary name brand Morgan Spurlock.

Based on initial estimates, EXPELLED, which opened on (an almost unheard of) over 1000 screens, made more than 3 million dollars for the weekend.  Previously, only MARCH OF THE PENGUINS, the JACKASS films and Michael Moore's FAHRENHEIT 9/11 and SICKO appeared on more than 1000 screens at once.  AN INCOVENIENT TRUTH never played on more than 600 screens.

EXPELLED, which received a lot of free advertising on conservative talk radio and blogs, was able to average nearly $3,000 per screen, by no means a blockbuster by narrative standards, but highly successful for such a widely released doc, particularly in the current climate.  Distributor Rocky Mountain Pictures employed Motive Marketing, the same firm that targeted Christian audiences for THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST and the NARNIA films, for outreach to the faith community.  This likely blunted the force of the overwhelmingly negative critical reviews of the film, which may be the worst reviewed documentary of all time, a stat that some may write off to liberal bias, save that even the NY Post's Kyle Smith (who famously pans nearly every left-leaning doc) gives the film a mixed review (although he praises Stein in comparison to Michael Moore).

The success of EXPELLED marks the first time that a conservative-targeted nonfiction film has made a mark at the box office.  For years there have been questions as to why there wasn't a conservative strand of documentary and why film festivals seem to exclusively screen docs with a liberal, activist tilt.  Reasons given often revolved around dual arguments of quantity and quality.  While EXPELLED may not satisfy the quality question, its success suggests that there is a market for other conservative docs, particularly if a filmmaker was able to score a high profile figure like Stein and follow a similar marketing path.  Is the Glenn Beck anti-Gore film far behind?

Meanwhile, it was box office disappointment for the Weinstein Co.'s WHERE IN THE WORLD, the latest from SUPER SIZE ME wunderkind Morgan Spurlock.  Hampered by negative reviews of its own and sure to inspire another round of tired "Americans are sick of movies about the war" articles/arguments, the film averaged just over $1,400 per screen (or less than half of EXPELLED).  Playing on 102 screens, the film will end the weekend with more than $140,000 and may have trouble making it to half a million.  By comparison, SUPER SIZE ME made 11.5 million on its release in 2004.

Doing better per screen than both EXPELLED and OSAMA was YOUNG@HEART, which expanded to 33 theaters and averaged more than $4,300 per.  Also continuing its successful run is Martin Scorsese's SHINE A LIGHT, now at 3.7 million.

More on the documentary box office this week...

April 16, 2008

Concert Films Lead a Resurgent 2008 Nonfiction Box

The year is just three and a half months old and the nonfiction box office is being led by two rock concert films - Catherine Owens & Mark Pellington's U23D and Martin Scorsese's SHINE A LIGHT - and their resounding success (7.5 million & 3 million, and counting, respectively) may signal a stronger year for nonfiction than some had suspected.

Even if one were to remove U23D and SHINE A LIGHT from consideration, you'd find that more films are finding an audience than at the same point last year.  In 2007, just seven films had grossed at least $30,000 (led by the only-released-in-Canada SHARKWATER, which had $540K by this point).  This year, each of the films in the current top 15 has reached that mark.

This past week's big premiere, Fox Searchlight's YOUNG@HEART, finished second on this week's indieWIRE iw:BOT, grossing more than $65,000 since last Wednesday at just 4 theaters.  Coming Friday, two more important titles - Morgan Spurlock's WHERE IN THE WORLD IS OSAMA BIN LADEN? and Nathan Frankowski's EXPELLED.

Correction: When I first published this list, I failed to include VINCE VAUGHN'S WILD WEST COMEDY SHOW, which made over $600K earlier this year.  I will include the film on future editions of this chart.  The mistake was mine.

Here are the top 15 nonfiction titles of 2008 thus far:

1.    U23D (National Geographic)                      $  7,427,757

2.    SHINE A LIGHT (Paramount Vantage)       $  2,958,115

**    VINCE VAUGHN'S WILD... (Picturehouse) $    603,894

3.    STEEP (Sony Pictures Classics)              $     260,586

4.    TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE (THINKFilm)    $     242,309

5.    PLANET B-BOY (Elephant Eye)                $     191,623

6.    CHICAGO 10 (Roadside Attractions)          $     154,141

7.    GIRLS ROCK! (Shadow)                           $       97,600

8.    BUSINESS OF BEING BORN (Intl Film)    $       69,911

9.    YOUNG@HEART (Fox Searchlight)           $       66,257

10.  PRAYING WITH LIOR (FirstRun)               $       62,798

11.  BLINDSIGHT (Abramorama)                      $       62,374

12.  THE UNFORESEEN (Cinema Guild)          $       52,437

13.  BRA BOYS (Slowhand)                             $       45,589

14.  BODY OF WAR (Film Sales Co.)               $       31,782

15.  FIGHTING FOR LIFE (Truly Indie)             $       30,606

April 11, 2008

The Great April Box Office Test - YOUNG@HEART, OSAMA, SOP and EXPELLED May Decide The Future of Docs

With Wednesday's opening of the film YOUNG@HEART, Fox Searchlight (which hadn't picked up a documentary for distibution in a decade) kicked off what will be the first big test for nonfiction in 2008.  While Sundance hits AMERICAN TEEN and MAN ON WIRE wait in the wings, a quartet of films debuting this month - two from among the most well-know of all doc filmmakers - stand poised to offer a remarkable guage on the current landscape for theatrical nonfiction.

All four films - YOUNG@HEART, WHERE IN THE WORLD IS OSAMA BIN LADEN?, EXPELLED and STANDARD OPERATING PRODECURE - could be (and perhaps should be) box office successes.   After all, we have new films from Errol Morris (SOP) and Morgan Spurlock (OSAMA), a film from perhaps the best of the "dependent" studios (YOUNG) and what may be the best-made, conservative-leaning nonfiction title to come down the pike (EXPELLED).  But each will be challenged not only by the recent atmosphere for documentaries but also by a variety of questions, including audience, timing and quality.

Will YOUNG@HEART, a crowd-pleasing documentary about a group of seniors that performs as a rock and roll choir, benefit from Fox Searchlight's well-known expertise in marketing and releasing.  Wednesday's opening in 4 theaters averaged $894 per screen - not a disaster but also nothing to scream break-out hit.

Will EXPELLED, a film arguing that those scientists and teachers who believe in Intelligent Design have been unfairly targeted, accomplish what no conservative nonfiction title has yet to - find a wide theatrical audience.  Distributor Rocky Mountain Films (which has had some small-scale success with religious-themed films in the past) aims to open the film wide - at least 900 screens - next Friday.  Will the film be able to draw conservatives - who don't have a track record of supporting documentaries in the theaters - as well as open-minded independents and liberals.  For years, many have asked why we haven't seen more well-produced documentaries with conservative ideas.  EXPELLED may well be the first of a wave or may provide evidence that the audience for such films (theatrically, at least) is small.

Will WHERE IN THE WORLD IS OSAMA BIN LADEN? be able to draw on Morgan Spurlock's everyday guy appeal and capitalize on the success of his first film, SUPER SIZE ME.  The film, which is almost certain to divide critics, also debuts next weekend, providing a kind of interesting compare and contrast with Nathan Frankowski's EXPELLED.  Although OSAMA tries to thread political lines between right and left by not taking an activist position - Spurlock is presented as a kind of blank slate, a surrogate for an audience wondering what kind of world we live in, circa 2008 - some might view the film as naive or simplified within such a framework.  Whereas SUPER SIZE ME had a direct message - fast food is bad for you - OSAMA ponders a more ephemeral question - why can't we be friends?

And finally, will STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE, the first film for Oscar winning director Errol Morris since FOG OF WAR, be able to wade through it's own divided critical opinion, as well as the fact that the film is the fourth on the topic of Abu Ghraib and is sure to be compared to the Oscar-winning TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE.

Much to answer in April - with many fearing that if all four films find difficulty at the box office, it may be the final straw for distributors and filmmakers with theatrical stars in their eyes.

January 29, 2008

U23D Becomes - In 1st Wknd - the 1st 1M Nonfiction of 2008

U23D, the concert film by Mark Pellington and longtime U2 associate Catherine Owens, was a huge nonfiction hit over the weekend, following its premiere at the Sundance Film Festival, taking in an average of more than $15K on each of its 61 screens, for a total of $964,000. Add in late night Thursday shows and the film has already become the first nonfiction title of 2008 to gross more than 1 million dollars at the box office. It's also the best opening for a music doc since TUPAC: RESURRECTION, which had an opening weekend of 4.6 million when it opened on over 800 screens.

While we won't be doing our regular box office feature until later in the year, it's worth noting that the two Oscar nominees in release - THINKFilm's TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE and WAR/DANCE - didn't get much of a box office bump from their nominations. TAXI added a theater and averaged $2,142 (down from last week's opening average of $5,465) while WAR/DANCE returned to 6 theaters for an average of $1,408, putting its cume at $66,137. Since TAXI is considered a front runner (with SICKO and NO END IN SIGHT) for the Oscar, it will be interesting to watch what happens as THINK expands the film to other markets.

December 31, 2007

2007: The Year in Nonfiction - The Issues

While an exceptional year for film quality, tt would be a mistake to argue that 2007 was a good year for the nonfiction film "industry", such as it is.  Despite the best efforts of many (from filmmakers to writers to distributors to exhibitors), the year featured one bad news story after another - box office down, interest down, distribution options down.  And then, come the end of the year, the bad joke that was the Academy's Documentary Feature Shortlist - long on staidness, short on imagination.

So, grab a stiff drink and revisit the lowlights of a thoroughly depressing year as we recap The Top 5 Issues in Nonfiction 2007:

5. All Michael Moore, All the Time

The unveiling of a new Michael Moore opus is starting to seem like the release of a new Harry Potter book.  In addition to the release itself, there's the nonstop hubbub and hoopla that surrounds it.  With Potter, this means costumed kids standing in line at bookstores.  With Michael Moore, it means an endless series of "fact-checks" from the "serious media", lambastes from conservatives ("it didn't gross 100 million, it's a flop!") and tortured second-guessing from the left ("someone has to say it, I just wish it didn't come with all his baggage").

This year, the SXSW-premiere of a new, supposedly unbiased anti-Moore film kicked off the debate a full three months early.  The subsequent whining by the film's makers that festivals were blocking their film in deference to the mighty Michael added some questionable last-minute PR to their cause.  Throughout all of it, it became clear that it wasn't enough to debate SICKO, Moore's treatise on the health care crisis, because we were still having an active debate about Moore's first feature, ROGER & ME.

But SICKO provided it's own controversies (including the aforementioned idiocity that it was somehow a flop), with charges of hypocrisy (why is he staying at the Four Seasons if he's such a "man of the people", wondered the very un-serious LA Times) and loose journalism (from the likes of Wolf Blitzer). 

Seems unlikely to stop the kudos to come: Moore's position as "the most important man in nonfiction"™ neatly guarantees loads of critics prizes (especially from groups that barely see more than 5 docs a year) and a probable Oscar nod.  Meanwhile, Moore-haters and liberals who like to seem above it all can bask in the critical drubbing of CAPTAIN MIKE ACROSS AMERICA, his Toronto-premiering tour film.

4. Oscar Qualifying Rules

What started in late 2006 as a bit of anger and much head-scratching over the Academy's charge that films had to play 14 cities in 10 states, ended just as bizarrely this fall with a total reversal - you only have to play in New York and Los Angeles.  In between was months of debate over whether the new rules would make it impossible for films to qualify or would guarantee that the shortlisted films were true theatricals.  The verdict - no and no.

It hit a nadir when IRAQ IN FRAGMENTS producer John Sinno wrote, days after the Oscars, an Open Letter to the Academy, in which he blasted the new rules.  His screed captured the "sky is falling" attitude of some in the doc community and prompted many uninformed film writers to guess that most films would be out of the running under such a system.  The truth was that plenty of films would have been able to qualify in past years and 70 films still found a way to qualify this year, and (as you'll see at issue #2) being a true theatrical release was in no way a mandate.

But beyond the surface reactions, there were serious issues.  The Academy seemed to have no idea what venues actually qualified a true theatrical venue.  They planned to leave such research up to filmmakers and theater owners to determine.  Meanwhile, a cottage industry was born, as filmmakers without distribution (or whose distribution was pending) spent tens of thousands of dollars making sure their films traveled to enough cities.

The Academy seemed to realize that the whole theatrical mandate was a debacle, but their fix is likely even worse.  In a repudiation of the last decade's push for theatrical releases, we're back to a 2-city requirement.  It may not be the bad old days of Saturday morning screenings at 11 AM, but it's not much better - a week in Los Angeles (likely again hidden in the sparsely-attended downtown Laemmle) and a week in New York (hey Anthology Film Archives, your phone is ringing).  You know that the likes of HBO and THINK will be able to secure a week, but will you?

3. Declining Distribution

One of the not-so-quiet secrets of the year has been the struggle of many award-winning films to get distribution.  The storyline usually goes something like this - film premieres at a major festival and wins prizes and plaudits, interest is expressed by one or two of the usual doc-distributing suspects (Magnolia, THINK, IFC, etc.), a deal is discussed and seems to be in the offing.  Then, suddenly, the deal is off and the filmmaker ends up making a deal with a smaller, start-up company that promises grass-roots marketing with fingers crossed that theaters and press will come aboard.

Of the 7 major North American festivals that award prizes for nonfiction - Sundance, SXSW, Full Frame, Hot Docs, Tribeca, Silverdocs & Los Angeles - only one grand jury prize winner, Alex Gibney's TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE, ended up with an experienced distributor - THINKFilm.  The others, which include Jason Kohn's MANDA BALA (SEND A BULLET), Jennifer Venditti's BILLY THE KID and Pernille Rose Gronkjær's THE MONASTERY - MR. VIG & THE NUN, all ended up patching together distribution, with MANDA BALA thus far fairing the best.  The Sundance jury winner has made more than $

One would have to go back to 2001's Southern Comfort (about the life of transsexual Robert Eads) to find a grand jury winner at Sundance that didn't wind up with an established distributor on board.  And this was before the two big purchases out of Sundance - IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON and MY KID COULD PAINT THAT - disappointed at the box office.  So what does that bode for 2008?

2. The Oscar Shortlist

After all the maneuvering by the Academy and the posturing about the importance of theatrical distribution (see issue #4), when the Academy released its vaunted Shortlist of 15 films in November, shockwaves reverberated through the nonfiction community.

On its face, the list made a lie of the Academy's so-called theatrical mandate.  Only six films of the fifteen had actually had a traditional theatrical release.  Three of the films had already aired on television.

But it was the films that didn't make it that brought the most heat.  During a year in which the notion of a nonfiction new wave began to take hold - auteurs (not journalists) taking real risks with craft and filmmaking style, telling true stories with vision and artistry - the Academy ignored so many truly great films that the mind reeled.

A number of impassioned words were written on the topic here and elsewhere, and these brought a strong, mostly supportive, response.  Startlingly, we received a great deal of positive reinforcement from where you might least expect it - from members of the Academy and members of the IDA (which was also criticized).  So if Academy members know that this year's list is - as more than one Academy member told me - "a scandal", then how did it happen?

We'll likely never know, other than oft-repeated tales of out-of-touch members receiving boxes of DVDs and picking films that played well for them on their television screens, which is an impressive way to reinforce a theatrical mandate.

For our part, the entire episode, from the list to the response, has inspired us to tackle something we began discussing with folks earlier in the year.  You'll be hearing about it in the days to come.

1. Dismal Box Office

I'm as big a cheerleader for theatrical nonfiction viability as the next person, but after months of trying to wish it untrue, even I have to admit that it was a terrible year for nonfiction at the box office.

Part of it was our own fault.  Filmmakers and distributors left the first half of 2008 nearly dry of high profile releases.  By October, there were as many notable nonfiction films opening on a weekend as there were in the first five months of 2007.  Not a good idea.

But there was something else too.  A sense that documentaries are medicinal?  That Seinfeld was right - we're incredibly depressing?  Too much bad news in the world anyway and you don't want to pay $10 for it, you'll just wait to put it in your queue? 

Compared to any year since 2002, when BOWLING FOR COLUMBINE changed everything, it was the worst year for docs by far.  Expected hits like IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON were big disappointments.  Folks at Magnolia are still scratching their heads over why mobs didn't show up for CRAZY LOVE.   And after coming up way short on both MY KID COULD PAINT THAT and JIMMY CARTER MAN FROM PLAINS, how much does Sony Pictures Classics have to make on Errol Morris' upcoming film to ever want to pick up a doc again.

Waves come and go and 2008 could change everything, what with Errol and Spurlock's did-he or didn't-he find bin Laden flick.  But in a year with a lot of bad news, the site of an empty theatre was the worst news of all.

December 11, 2007

Billy Conquers New York in the Weekend Doc Box

Jennifer Venditti's BILLY THE KID led all comers in its debut at the IFC Center in New York, taking in nearly $8K for the weekend to become the top doc on the indieWIRE:BOT this week.  Also performing well was Rob VanAlkemade's WHAT WOULD JESUS BUY?, which expanded to 25 theaters and topped $100,000 at the box office.

Otherwise, no change in the positioning of the top 15.  Give or take, this is looking pretty close to the year's final tallies:

1.    SICKO (LionsGate)                                  $24,540,079

2.    NO END IN SIGHT (Magnolia)                   $  1,433,319

3.    IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON (THINK)  $  1,127,872

4.    SHARKWATER (Alliance)                          $    850,920

5.    ARCTIC TALE (Paramount Vantage)         $    833,532

6.    INTO GREAT SILENCE (Zeitgeist)              $    790,452

7.    THE 11TH HOUR (Warner Independent)    $    707,343

8.    THE KING OF KONG (Picturehouse)           $    677,914

9.    GYPSY CARAVAN (Shadow)                       $    440,357

10.  GOD GREW TIRED OF US (Newmarket)      $    301,447

11.  CRAZY LOVE (Magnolia)                           $    301,027

12.  DEEP WATER (IFC)                                   $    266,234

13.  FOR THE BIBLE TELLS ME SO (First Run)    $    255,830

14.  MANUFACTURED LANDSCAPES (Zeitgeist)   $    240,239

15.  JOE STRUMMER: THE FUTURE IS... (IFC)    $    204,323

December 03, 2007

Catching Up with the Docs Box

It's been a few weeks since we've had a chance to check in on the fate of nonfiction at the box office.  In the interim, the solid debut has been the Rob VanAlkemade-helmed and Morgan Spurlock-produced   WHAT WOULD JESUS BUY?   It had a single screen opening of nearly $10K and has expanded nicely, coming in just shy of $80K after its third weekend.

This weekend, JOE STRUMMER: THE FUTURE IS UNWRITTEN moves into the top 15 for the first time, supplanting MY KID COULD PAINT THAT, which had earlier bumped the Ralph Nader doc AN UNREASONABLE MAN.

Coming this week are two great docs opening theatrically in NYC - Jennifer Venditti's BILLY THE KID opens Wednesday at the IFC in New York and Paul Lovelace & Sam Douglas' THE HOLY MODAL ROUNDERS - BOUND TO LOSE, which unspools exclusively at the Anthology Film Archives starting Friday.

Here's the top 15 docs of the year, box office-wise, to date:

1.    SICKO (LionsGate)                                  $24,540,079

2.    NO END IN SIGHT (Magnolia)                   $  1,433,319

3.    IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON (THINK)  $  1,125,684

4.    SHARKWATER (Alliance)                          $    850,920

5.    ARCTIC TALE (Paramount Vantage)         $    833,532

6.    INTO GREAT SILENCE (Zeitgeist)              $    790,452

7.    THE 11TH HOUR (Warner Independent)    $    707,343

8.    THE KING OF KONG (Picturehouse)           $    677,914

9.    GYPSY CARAVAN (Shadow)                       $    432,547

10.  GOD GREW TIRED OF US (Newmarket)      $    301,447

11.  CRAZY LOVE (Magnolia)                           $    301,027

12.  DEEP WATER (IFC)                                   $    261,365

13.  FOR THE BIBLE TELLS ME SO (First Run)    $    243,095

14.  MANUFACTURED LANDSCAPES (Zeitgeist)   $    240,239

15.  JOE STRUMMER: THE FUTURE IS... (IFC)    $    191,615

November 12, 2007

Steal a Pencil Wins the Weekend, Strummer & Seeger Continue to Play Well

STEAL A PENCIL FOR ME, the Holocaust-era love story from director Michele Ohayon, topped the per screen documentary box office this weekend.  The 7th Art release averaged just over $5,500 on two screens.  Just behind it, the Sundance award winning WAR/DANCE, which debuted on 3 screens for an average of just over $5K.

Meanwhile, music remained the order of the day as bio-docs on JOE STRUMMER and PETE SEEGER held onto their strong averages as they began to expand around the country.  In particular, Julian Temple's JOE STRUMMER: THE FUTURE IS UNWRITTEN added 14 screens and managed to take in over $3K on each, boosting that film's total box office to nearly $90K after just two weekends.  The Weinstein Co's PETE SEEGER: THE POWER OF SONG averaged even better on its 3 screens, at nearly $4K each.

On the chart, SHARKWATER returns to the fourth position, passing by ARCTIC TALE.

Here are the top 15 docs thus far in 2007 through this past weekend:

1.    SICKO (LionsGate)                                  $24,540,079

2.    NO END IN SIGHT (Magnolia)                   $  1,433,319

3.    IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON (THINK)  $  1,104,323

4.    SHARKWATER (Alliance)                          $    847,424

5.    ARCTIC TALE (Paramount Vantage)         $    833,532

6.    INTO GREAT SILENCE (Zeitgeist)              $    788,728

7.    THE 11TH HOUR (Warner Independent)    $    707,343

8.    THE KING OF KONG (Picturehouse)           $    677,914

9.    GYPSY CARAVAN (Shadow)                       $    412,219

10.  GOD GREW TIRED OF US (Newmarket)      $    301,447

11.  CRAZY LOVE (Magnolia)                           $    301,027

12.  DEEP WATER (IFC)                                   $    245,263

13.  MANUFACTURED LANDSCAPES (Zeitgeist)  $    234,084

14.  FOR THE BIBLE TELLS ME SO (First Run)    $    216,519

15.  AN UNREASONABLE MAN (IFC)                   $    176,647

November 11, 2007

On the Eve of Oscar's Shortlist, the Best Reviewed Doc of the Year Is...

...perhaps not the film you think it is.  And it may very well be left off the list of films about to be announced by the Academy that comprise this year's Best Documentary Feature Shortlist.  In fact, it's the kind of film that would likely surprise no one if it's not included, even though it unquestionably has a critical consensus that no other nonfiction feature can match.

But more on that in a moment.

It's always a gamble to look at critical response when one tries to guess what the members of the Academy's documentary branch will respond to.  For one thing, critical opinion of documentaries often is counter to the prevailing winds within the documentary community.  Why else would one of the most universally beloved films of the year within the doc community - Pernille Rose Gronkjær's THE MONASTERY (which is inelligible for Oscar due to a foreign TV broadcast) - have received a decidedly mixed response from the New York film critics?

It works the other way as well.  One of the darlings of film critics this year has been Tony Kaye's LAKE OF FIRE.  In fact, it ranks third on our chart below.  But amongst doc makers, the film is viewed less enthusiastically.  It might cause shock waves amongst critics if it's not on the Academy Shortlist, but few in the documentary community would raise an eyebrow.

Perhaps more curious is what will happen to the film that our chart shows to be the best reviewed film of the year - Seth Gordon's KING OF KONG: A FISTFUL OF QUARTERS.  It's not about Iraq or Darfur or African kids or health care or dead icons.  And some who've seen it seem to enjoy it so much that they don't particularly notice the skillful filmmaking involved.  Will the Academy?

At this moment, there seem to be five frontrunners - films whose omission would surprise many of us:

THE DEVIL CAME ON HORSEBACK
IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON
NO END IN SIGHT
SICKO
TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE

Beyond that, on a list that may be 12, may be 15, it's almost anyone's guess.  If I had to predict - and given all the attention focused on the desire for actual theatrical releases - I'd wager that 8 - 10 of the films would come from the year's higher profile theatrical releases, 30 of them listed here in alphabetical order:

THE 11TH HOUR
AIR GUITAR NATION
ARCTIC TALE
CRAZY LOVE
DARFUR NOW
DEEP WATER
THE DEVIL CAME ON HORSEBACK
FOR THE BIBLE TELLS ME SO
GYPSY CARAVAN
I HAVE NEVER FORGOTTEN YOU: THE LIFE & LEGACY OF SIMON WIESENTHAL
IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON
JIMMY CARTER MAN FROM PLAINS
JOE STRUMMER: THE FUTURE IS UNWRITTEN
THE KING OF KONG: A FISTFUL OF QUARTERS
KURT COBAIN ABOUT A SON
LAKE OF FIRE
MANDA BALA (SEND A BULLET)
MANUFACTURED LANDSCAPES
MEETING RESISTANCE
MR. UNTOUCHABLE
MY KID COULD PAINT THAT
NO END IN SIGHT
PETE SEEGER: THE POWER OF SONG
THE PRICE OF SUGAR
PRIMO LEVI'S JOURNEY
SHARKWATER
SICKO
TERROR'S ADVOCATE
WAR/DANCE
ZOO

In addition to TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE (which opens theatrically in January), there are a number of festival favorites (or films that, like Taxi, have upcoming theatrical releases) that look to fill up to five of the other slots:

BILLY THE KID
BODY OF WAR
BUDDHA'S LOST CHILDREN
CHOPS
HEAR AND NOW
LARRY FLYNT: THE RIGHT TO BE LEFT ALONE
MY ENEMY'S ENEMY
NANKING
PLEASE VOTE FOR ME
PROTAGONIST
A PROMISE TO THE DEAD: THE EXILE JOURNEY OF ARIEL DORFMAN
SOUVENIRS
SUMMERCAMP!
WE ARE TOGETHER

That's 45 films.  In a recent Wall Street Journal article, the Academy reported that 70 films had qualifying runs.  From that remaining 25, expect between 2 and 4, including at least one title that has everyone scratching their heads.

But of the films that are in the running for the Shortlist this year, at least 30 have had traditional theatrical releases - including screening for critics and reporting box office totals.  How important is that to the Academy?  Years vary, but last year, 12 of the 15 films had already had a traditional theatrical release or had one planned when the Shortlist was announced.

We've taken those 30 films and come up with a formula t