Fearless Oscar Predictions

First, a suggestion. Want to reduce your general level of outrage? Do something about the thing that outrages you.

So, with that in mind, a bit about Tuesday’s Oscar announcement and some predictions that I warn in advance may be well off the mark. That’s how it’s been with me and the Academy this year. I zig, they zag.

But generally, my own excitement about building a new award that celebrates the breadth of content and craft within nonfiction, has left me feeling fine about this year’s potential nominees. Not fine as in “upon further reflection, I think those screeners did a great job”, but as in, “best of luck to all shortlisted films and to whoever moves to the finals on Tuesday.

That said, here’s what I think is most likely to happen when the Oscar nominations are announced.

My usual formula is this: 3 of the films are going to be high-profile theatrical films, one is a about international topics, one is about politics.

But with this crop of war-heavy features, it almost feels like you have to throw that out the window.

Another thing – since the Academy began tinkering with the qualifying rules earlier this decade, no one has been nominated for the feature documentary Oscar more than once.

This year, two frontrunners – Michael Moore (for SICKO) and Alex Gibney (for TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE) could become the first to bust this “spread the wealth” theory. I think both will, but if either or both are not named on Tuesday, that may be the reason.

Add to SICKO and TAXI the third frontrunner – Charles Ferguson’s NO END IN SIGHT, which may actually be the top contender for the prize.

Filling the other two slots? I predict one will go to LAKE OF FIRE, Tony Kaye’s piercing look at the abortion conflict in America. Before the Academy shortlist was announced, I couldn’t see a great deal of support for that film. But I think I was letting my own misgivings about the film (I couldn’t get over the fact that almost all of it takes place in the 1990s) cloud my judgment. Although it wasn’t nominated by any of the guilds and it was skipped by almost all of the major critics, I sense now that this might be the year’s “political” film.

If not LAKE OF FIRE, that slot may go to FOR THE BIBLE TELLS ME SO. Either film would provide a healthy dose of religious introspection that marked two of last year’s nominees – JESUS CAMP and DELIVER US FROM EVIL.

I think the fifth slot is almost a toss-up. Richard Robbins’ OPERATION HOMECOMING has received a tremendous amount of support (including a DGA nomination). Last year, the Academy nominated two Iraq films – IRAQ IN FRAGMENTS and MY COUNTRY, MY COUNTRY, but will they pick 3 films about Iraq (assuming TAXI and NO END both get nods)? And if they go for 3, will Phil Donahue and Ellen Spiro’s BODY OF WAR make the cut?

I have a weird sense that a subconscious desire to focus on the war in Iraq might mean that the Academy passes over films about other conflicts, including NANKING and WAR/DANCE.

And will the Academy want to add something a little lighter, something heartwarming, effectively countering Seinfeld’s long-remembered “incredibly depressing” comment at last year’s Oscars?

If so, the (not-so-)surpirising fifth nominee could be Tricia Regan’s AUTISM: THE MUSICAL.

Frankly, almost anything can happen. But I predict that the five films that the Academy will nominate this year will be:

LAKE OF FIRE
NO END IN SIGHT
OPERATION HOMECOMING: WRITING THE WARTIME EXPERIENCE
SICKO
TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE

Last year, I was 3 for 5. We’ll see if I do better or far, far worse this year.

Comments

[Jason Scott]

This year you are four for five, AJ, with just one misstep, choosing "Lake of Fire" where the Academy chose "Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience". Good show, keeps me coming back to your weblog.