On the Eve of Oscar's Shortlist, the Best Reviewed Doc of the Year Is...

...perhaps not the film you think it is.  And it may very well be left off the list of films about to be announced by the Academy that comprise this year's Best Documentary Feature Shortlist.  In fact, it's the kind of film that would likely surprise no one if it's not included, even though it unquestionably has a critical consensus that no other nonfiction feature can match.

But more on that in a moment.

It's always a gamble to look at critical response when one tries to guess what the members of the Academy's documentary branch will respond to.  For one thing, critical opinion of documentaries often is counter to the prevailing winds within the documentary community.  Why else would one of the most universally beloved films of the year within the doc community - Pernille Rose Gronkjær's THE MONASTERY (which is inelligible for Oscar due to a foreign TV broadcast) - have received a decidedly mixed response from the New York film critics?

It works the other way as well.  One of the darlings of film critics this year has been Tony Kaye's LAKE OF FIRE.  In fact, it ranks third on our chart below.  But amongst doc makers, the film is viewed less enthusiastically.  It might cause shock waves amongst critics if it's not on the Academy Shortlist, but few in the documentary community would raise an eyebrow.

Perhaps more curious is what will happen to the film that our chart shows to be the best reviewed film of the year - Seth Gordon's KING OF KONG: A FISTFUL OF QUARTERS.  It's not about Iraq or Darfur or African kids or health care or dead icons.  And some who've seen it seem to enjoy it so much that they don't particularly notice the skillful filmmaking involved.  Will the Academy?

At this moment, there seem to be five frontrunners - films whose omission would surprise many of us:

THE DEVIL CAME ON HORSEBACK
IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON
NO END IN SIGHT
SICKO
TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE

Beyond that, on a list that may be 12, may be 15, it's almost anyone's guess.  If I had to predict - and given all the attention focused on the desire for actual theatrical releases - I'd wager that 8 - 10 of the films would come from the year's higher profile theatrical releases, 30 of them listed here in alphabetical order:

THE 11TH HOUR
AIR GUITAR NATION
ARCTIC TALE
CRAZY LOVE
DARFUR NOW
DEEP WATER
THE DEVIL CAME ON HORSEBACK
FOR THE BIBLE TELLS ME SO
GYPSY CARAVAN
I HAVE NEVER FORGOTTEN YOU: THE LIFE & LEGACY OF SIMON WIESENTHAL
IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON
JIMMY CARTER MAN FROM PLAINS
JOE STRUMMER: THE FUTURE IS UNWRITTEN
THE KING OF KONG: A FISTFUL OF QUARTERS
KURT COBAIN ABOUT A SON
LAKE OF FIRE
MANDA BALA (SEND A BULLET)
MANUFACTURED LANDSCAPES
MEETING RESISTANCE
MR. UNTOUCHABLE
MY KID COULD PAINT THAT
NO END IN SIGHT
PETE SEEGER: THE POWER OF SONG
THE PRICE OF SUGAR
PRIMO LEVI'S JOURNEY
SHARKWATER
SICKO
TERROR'S ADVOCATE
WAR/DANCE
ZOO

In addition to TAXI TO THE DARK SIDE (which opens theatrically in January), there are a number of festival favorites (or films that, like Taxi, have upcoming theatrical releases) that look to fill up to five of the other slots:

BILLY THE KID
BODY OF WAR
BUDDHA'S LOST CHILDREN
CHOPS
HEAR AND NOW
LARRY FLYNT: THE RIGHT TO BE LEFT ALONE
MY ENEMY'S ENEMY
NANKING
PLEASE VOTE FOR ME
PROTAGONIST
A PROMISE TO THE DEAD: THE EXILE JOURNEY OF ARIEL DORFMAN
SOUVENIRS
SUMMERCAMP!
WE ARE TOGETHER

That's 45 films.  In a recent Wall Street Journal article, the Academy reported that 70 films had qualifying runs.  From that remaining 25, expect between 2 and 4, including at least one title that has everyone scratching their heads.

But of the films that are in the running for the Shortlist this year, at least 30 have had traditional theatrical releases - including screening for critics and reporting box office totals.  How important is that to the Academy?  Years vary, but last year, 12 of the 15 films had already had a traditional theatrical release or had one planned when the Shortlist was announced.

We've taken those 30 films and come up with a formula to track their critical response - the overall percentage of fresh reviews from all critics at Rotten Tomatoes PLUS the percentage of fresh reviews from the "Cream of the Crop" critics at Rotten Tomatoes PLUS the film's score at Metacritic.

While this formula is certainly imperfect - I don't know a filmmaker who hasn't wondered how Fresh/Rotten is determined or how Metacritic comes up with their scores - the combination of the three numbers gives at least an introductory indication of how a varied group might respond to a film - as well as gauge the strength of their passion for or against.  And when compared to the actual shortlist when announced, it might provide clues as to where opinion differs between critics and filmmakers (see the list at the very bottom for last year's results).

By this formula, here is how 30 of the year's higher profile theatrical releases are fairing as of this weekend.  As indicated, the first figure is total of three scores, the second is an average based on that total divided by three, the third is the freshness rating of all Rotten Tomato critics, the fourth is the "Cream of the Crop" critics percentage and the fifth is the film's Metacrtic score:

1.  THE KING OF KONG
TOTAL = 282
AVERAGE = 94
99% (71 out of 72)
100% cream
83 score

2.  NO END IN SIGHT
TOTAL = 280
AVERAGE = 93.333
95% (75 out of 79)
96% cream of the crop
89 score

3 (TIE).  IN THE SHADOW OF THE MOON
TOTAL = 278
AVERAGE = 92.667
94% (95 out of 101)
100% cream of the crop
84 score

3 (TIE).  LAKE OF FIRE
TOTAL = 278
AVERAGE = 92.667
95% (37 out of 39)
100% cream
83 score

5.  THE DEVIL CAME ON HORSEBACK
TOTAL = 275
AVERAGE = 91.667
97% (38 out of 39)
100% cream of the crop
78 score

6.  DEEP WATER
TOTAL = 270
AVERAGE = 90
96% (46 out of 48)
94% cream
80 score

7.  PETE SEEGER: THE POWER OF SONG
TOTAL = 267
AVERAGE = 89
95% (18 out of 19)
91% cream
81 score

8 (TIE).  JOE STRUMMER: THE FUTURE IS UNWRITTEN
TOTAL = 266
AVERAGE = 88.667
87% (33 of 38)
100% cream
79 score

8 (TIE).  FOR THE BIBLE TELLS ME SO
TOTAL = 266
AVERAGE = 88.667
94% (32 out of 34)
100% cream
72 score

10.  MY KID COULD PAINT THAT
TOTAL = 264
AVERAGE = 88
95% (52 out of 55)
95% cream
74 score

11.  SICKO
TOTAL = 254
AVERAGE = 84.667
93% (163 out of 176)
87% cream
74 score

12.  MANUFACTURED LANDSCAPES
TOTAL = 251
AVERAGE = 83.667
83% (44 out of 53)
89% cream
79 score

13.  TERROR'S ADVOCATE
TOTAL = 249
AVERAGE = 83
84% (21 out of 25)
90% cream
75 score

14. MANDA BALA (SEND A BULLET)
TOTAL = 247
AVERAGE = 82.333
82% (36 out of 44)
94% cream
71 score

15.  I HAVE NEVER FORGOTTEN YOU: THE LIFE & LEGACY OF SIMON WIESENTHAL
TOTAL = 243
AVERAGE = 81
81% (17 out of 21)
89% cream
73 score

16 (TIE).  AIR GUITAR NATION
TOTAL = 241
AVERAGE = 80.333
83% (48 out of 58)
86% cream
72 score

16 (TIE).  GYPSY CARAVAN
TOTAL = 241
AVERAGE = 80.333
85% (39 out of 46)
83% cream
73 score

16 (TIE).  KURT COBAIN ABOUT A SON
TOTAL = 241
AVERAGE = 80.333
79% (19 out of 24)
89% cream
73 score

19.  THE PRICE OF SUGAR
TOTAL = 230
AVERAGE = 76.667
75% (12 out of 16)
83% cream
72 score

20.  CRAZY LOVE
TOTAL = 227
AVERAGE = 75.667
78% (61 out of 78)
80% cream
69 score

21.  PRIMO LEVI'S JOURNEY
TOTAL - 226
AVERAGE = 75.333
83% (15 out of 18)
75% cream
68 score

22.  MR. UNTOUCHABLE
TOTAL = 223
AVERAGE = 74.333
76% (16 out of 21)
82% cream
65 score

23.  WAR/DANCE
TOTAL = 221
AVERAGE = 73.667
76% (16 out of 21)
80% cream
65 score

24.  MEETING RESISTANCE
TOTAL = 209
AVERAGE = 69.667
82% (9 out of 11)
83% cream
44 score

25.  DARFUR NOW
TOTAL = 198
AVERAGE = 66
64% (25 out of 39)
67% cream
67 score

26.  JIMMY CARTER MAN FROM PLAINS
TOTAL = 195
AVERAGE = 65
75% (33 out of 44)
62% cream
58 score

27.  SHARKWATER
TOTAL = 194
AVERAGE = 64.667
77% (17 out of 22)
56% cream
61 score

28.  THE 11TH HOUR
TOTAL = 193
AVERAGE = 64.333
67% (53 out of 79)
63% cream
63 score

29. ARCTIC TALE
TOTAL = 182
AVERAGE = 60.667
64% (53 out of 83)
54% cream
64 score

30. ZOO
TOTAL = 175
AVERAGE = 58.333
56% (24 out of 43)
56% cream
63 score

What does this mean?  How important is critical opinion?  If we look back at 20 high profile traditional theatrical films from 2006 - including 12 that made the Shortlist - we'll find films like 51 BIRCH STREET and 49 UP, which had the second and third highest cumulative scores, and neither made the Shortlist, while JESUS CAMP, which comes in 18 out of 20, gets nominated:

1,  DELIVER US FROM EVIL (Nominated)
TOTAL = 286
AVERAGE = 95.333

2.  51 BIRCH STREET (Not Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 274
AVERAGE = 91.333

3.  49 UP (Not Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 273
AVERAGE = 91

4.  IRAQ IN FRAGMENTS (Nominated)
TOTAL = 272
AVERAGE = 90.667

5.  THE WAR TAPES (Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 271
AVERAGE = 90.333

6.  WORDPLAY (Not Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 265
AVERAGE = 88.333

7.  AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH (Nominated/Won)
TOTAL = 261
AVERAGE = 87

8.  (Tie)  SHUT UP AND SING (Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 258
AVERAGE = 86

8.  (Tie)  AN UNREASONABLE MAN (Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 258
AVERAGE = 86

10.  JONESTOWN: THE LIFE AND DEATH OF PEOPLES TEMPLE (Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 256
AVERAGE = 85.333

11.  WHO KILLED THE ELECTRIC CAR? (Not Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 255
AVERAGE = 85

12.  CAN MR. SMITH GET TO WASHINGTON ANYMORE? (Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 250
AVERAGE = 83.333

13.  SISTERS-IN-LAW (Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 249
AVERAGE = 83

14.  MY COUNTRY MY COUNTRY (Nominated)
TOTAL = 244
AVERAGE = 81.3

15.  (Tie)  THE GROUND TRUTH (Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 240
AVERAGE = 80

15. (Tie)  HEART OF THE GAME (Not Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 240
AVERAGE = 80

17.  THIS FILM IS NOT YET RATED (Not Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 236
AVERAGE = 78.667

18.  JESUS CAMP (Nominated)
TOTAL = 233
AVERAGE = 77.667

19.   SKETCHES OF FRANK GEHRY (Not Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 224
AVERAGE = 74.667

20.  US VS. JOHN LENNON (Not Shortlisted)
TOTAL = 209
AVERAGE = 69.667

On critical opinion and box office alone, WORDPLAY should have been a shoe-in, right?  Well, keep that in mind if KING OF KONG isn't on this year's list, even though it just may be the best documentary of the year.

Comments

[Sidney Gains]

Strange to me that you would leave off a documentary that you covered previously, Darius Goes West. It has won an unparalleled twenty-five festival awards, both critical and audience based. They have had coverage on Nightline, the Today Show, and also have had glowing reviews in Variety and the LA Times among others. Also, it has competed with nearly all the films listed and won. To me that all adds up to a pretty powerful presentation to the Academy, and a pretty blatant and mistaken ommision...just my two cents.

[tricia regan/director - autism: the musical]

autism: the musical - upon not viewing this movie, you might think it is unhip, unedgy, even treacly. you might be shocked it made the oscar's documentary shortlist. upon viewing, you might have another opinion altogether. ironically, the film is about seeing autistic kids without pre-conceived notions, and letting them unfurl for you for exactly who they are. sometimes the personal is the most political. start to think about why we are, collectively as a society, ignoring a health situation that is endangering 1 in 150 of our kids. start to think about why Bush put a stop to a nationwide longitudinal study on children's health that already had millions invested in setting it up and stood to save us billions in health care costs. maybe we don't want to know why this generation of kids is the first generation of american kids to be less healthy than their parents. it's not just autism, it's diabetes and cancer too. and asthma. Start to think about why we wouldn't want to know why. who would be implicated -- polluters, corporations, big pharma, our own appetites for cars and plastics and energy to fuel our homes? nobody knows what causes autism - and why it has jumped from 1 in 10,000 kids in 1980 to one in 150. and that is the first question people ask me after seeing this movie - why is this happening? and that is not treacly, or sentimental, it is eerie. and troubling. And that is why, after seeing this movie, people tell me they just can't forget it.